US estimates recession probability in 2023
American economists estimate the likelihood of recession in the United States at 61 percent in 2023, the Wall Street Journal wrote with reference to its own study, which was attended by 71 experts.
It is noted that despite the decline in inflation in the United States, rising interest rates will provoke a downturn in the economy.
Experts believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will not be able to carry out a policy of "soft landing" - to slow inflation without significantly reducing jobs so as not to provoke a recession.
Deutsche Bank economists Brett Ryan and Matthew Luzzetti believe that the regulator's tough policy will persist, leading to higher unemployment, and that it takes time for the situation to normalise.
Experts expect US GDP to grow at an annualised rate of 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, with no further growth expected until the fourth quarter, when the figure will rise by 0.6 per cent.
Earlier, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that the United States will be able to avoid a recession this year, there is more reason to improve the assessment of the world's largest economy.