According to the project, the GDP will decrease by 4.2% in 2022. Back in May, the agency forecasted a 7.8% contraction of the economy in the baseline scenario.
Next year the recession will be deeper than the Ministry of Economic Development expected in May - 2.7% against 0.7%. At the same time, according to a federal official familiar with the course of discussions on the draft basic forecast parameters, the greatest recession in the economy is expected in the first quarter of 2023.
The Bank of Russia gave the same estimate earlier. The Russian economy is expected to return to a positive trajectory only in 2024-2025.