Brent Neiman: The Economist Challenging Trump's Tariffs
Economist Brent Neiman disputes Trump's tariff policy, asserting dramatic miscalculations and misuse of his research.
In an unfolding drama filled with equations and policy debates, Brent Neiman, an esteemed economist from the University of Chicago, finds himself at the epicenter of controversy over President Trump’s bold tariff policies. Is the administration mishandling academic research, and what does Neiman have to say about it?
The Unexpected Controversy
Brent Neiman’s renown comes from not just his academic credentials but also his expertise in global trade economics. Yet, this expertise has led to a clash with the Trump administration, which cited his laborious work as a foundation for new tariffs—tariffs which Neiman boldly claims have been wildly miscalculated by none other than the administration itself.
Not a Trump Confidant
In 2021, Neiman co-authored a seminal paper titled “Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store” with other notable economists, including Harvard’s Alberto Cavallo. According to Mint, this research was subsequently used by the U.S. Trade Representative to support Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy, leading to an awkward mix-up over numbers that left Neiman astounded.
A Shocking Miscalculation
In a candid New York Times op-ed, Neiman laid bare his disbelief at the administration’s calculations. He recounted his initial reaction: “Gosh, how could those numbers be so high?” The shock only deepened when he identified the misuse of his research, stating, “They got it wrong. Very wrong.”
Unraveling the Numbers
This wasn’t a petty nitpick about a few percentage points, but rather an error of substantial magnitude. Neiman argues that an incorrect variable from his study was plugged into the administration’s tariff model, inflating figures indiscriminately.
Neiman’s Stand on Trade Policies
Neiman doesn’t just stop at identifying miscalculations. He takes aim at Trump’s core economic strategy—eliminating trade deficits via reciprocal tariffs—criticizing it as economically unsound. In vivid critique, he noted that trade imbalances arise for myriad reasons, far beyond simplistic tariff solutions.
A Logical Rationalization
Neiman crafts a storyline that unravels the notion that trade deficits connote unfair competition. The economist urges recalibration, advising the administration to “divide its results by four,” if not scrap the tariff strategy outright.
From Academia to Treasury
While Neiman’s expertise has led him into the political arena, including a role under President Biden’s Treasury Department, he clarifies he holds no allegiance or ties to Trump’s circle, maintaining an objective stance strictly grounded in economic fact.
Liberation Day and Market Turmoil
The tariffs’ announcement, made on what Trump called “Liberation Day,” prompted a global ripple effect. Despite the President’s declarations on Truth Social, “THIS IS AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN,” the markets responded with immediate trepidation, underscoring fears of a brewing financial upheaval.
Through it all, Neiman stands unwavering, wielding his academic acumen as both sword and shield against the torrents of misapplied economic policy.